Gino. I'm worried about the sulfur content in that load of crude oil you've got tied up at the docks there. I've just heard that it has come from an oilfield where the crude usually has a high sulfur content. That's a large capacity supertanker you've got there with over a hundred separate storage tanks, so if I load all your oil into my refinery, I could end up contaminating my entire works with sulfur products.
Elsa. I anticipated your concern, and I dipped out this five gallon sample from the No. 42 hold before I came over to your office. Your own lab has certified that it has a very low sulfur content, so you don't have to be concerned about the sulfur content of my oil.


Gino      1. Elsa's oil is from an oilfield where the crude usually has a high sulfur content.
             C. Elsa's oil probably has a high sulfur content.                     DIRECT

Elsa      1. A five gallon sample from elsa's No. 42 hold has a very low sulfur content.                                                                                                                 
             C. Elsa's oil probably has a very low sulfur content.                     DIRECT

Gino gives a direct argument
Elsa gives a direct argument

Analysis:  If Gino were arguing that the oil does have sulfur, then he would bear the burden of proof. But because he is only arguning that it might have sulfur, then it is Elsa who bears the burden of proving that it doesn't. (Especially since she wants Gino to buy her oil.)

Gino  Generalization Argument.                                 Elsa:  Generalization Argument.
         Population: Elsa's oil                                                 Population: Elsa's oil
         Sample: previous oil from same oilfield.                     Sample: Five gallons from the No. 42 hold 
         Age: current                                                              Age: current
         Size: unknown, presumably large.                              Size: Five gallons

Evaluation: Gino makes a prediction based on existing knowledge about Elsa's oilfield. Elsa makes a generalization about the oil in her tanker based on a small sample from one hold out of at least 42 holds. Since there's no guarantee that the oil was well mixed before it was put in the tanker, there is no guarantee that Elsa's sample is representative of the whole tanker.

Fallacy: Elsa, hasty generalization

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