Donna. I finally found out why I can't sleep at night.
Abner. You can't sleep?
Donna. Yeah. I'm nervous and irritable all day, I have to make a major effort just to stay awake until bedtime, but I never seem to sleep at night. Anyway, my chiropractor says it's because my spine is out of whack.
Abner. Your chiropractor?
Donna. Yeah, he's a fully trained Doctor of Chiropractic, so I can take his word for it.
Abner. Listen, I don't know much about your lifestyle or diet, but I'd be willing to bet that you drink coffee, or Mountain Dew or something else with caffeine in it. I mean, if you were taking a lot of caffeine, your nervousness, irritability and sleeplessness would make a lot of sense.

Abner's argument is based on three facts. Donna's irritability, his difficulty staying awake, and his sleeplessness. Excess coffee consumption is known to cause all three things, and it is a fairly common condition in today's society, whereas other conditions that might cause the same symptoms are much less common. So Abner's argument is a very reasonable first guess at the cause of Donna's problem.

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