Deion      1. Deion knows a lot of muslims.
               2. None of Deion's muslims want to forcibly convert anyone to Islam.
              (3.  Deion's muslims are representative of all modern muslims)                                                                             
               C. No more than a tiny minority of modern muslims want to forcibly convert people to Islam.                 DIRECT

Aryanna 1. During the muslim wars of conquest every Muslim in existence was committed to forcibly converting everyone in the world to Islam.  
              2. Massive muslim armies forcibly converted people in Arabia, North Africa, Europe and Asia.  
             (3.  Aryanna's muslims are representative of all modern muslims)                                                                             
              C. A majority of modern muslims want to forcibly convert people to Islam.                                      DIRECT

Deion gives a direct argument
Aryanna gives a direct argument

Analysis: Aryanna bears the burden of proof. [In the absence of compelling evidence, we can and should believe that muslims, like believers in other religions, and non-believers in any religion, do not wish to convert people by force.] 

Deion Generalization Argument.                                    Aryanna  Generalization Argument.
          Population: Modern muslims.                                             Population: Modern muslims.
          Sample: Deion's muslim acquaintances.                              Sample: Participants in the muslim wars of conquest.
          Age:    current                                                                   Age: 1,000+ years
          Size:    At most, a few dozen people                                  Size: All muslims alive at that time, perhaps several million.

Evaluation: Deion's sample size is pretty small. Still, if a majority of Muslims strongly supported forcible conversion, the Muslims that he talked to would presumably know this and pass the information onto him. So Deion's argument supports his conclusion provided that no-one comes up with strong evidence that the muslims he doesn't know differ from the ones he knows on this issue. (Absent such evidence, the most rational conclusion is that the attiudes of muslims we don't know about are the same as those we do know about.) Aryanna's argument is based on historical record, which is presumably based on reliable statistical methods. So we should say that she has an adequate sample. However, the muslim wars of conquest took place over a thousand years ago, so her sample is over a thousand years old. Peoples attitudes can change markedly in just a few years, so her sample is way too old to be reliable. Based on this information only, we don't have good reason to think that most modern muslims want to convert people by force, so Deion's conclusion is better supported (by burden of proof rules) even though his argument isn't particularly strong.

Fallacy: Aryanna, hasty generalization (obsolete sample).

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